However the UK economy is set for a modest contraction this year according to the national institute for economic and social research, as it downgraded its forecast for 2012 to -0.1% growth for 2012.

If accurate the worries of a double dip recession will soon become reality as the UK struggles to maintain growth among a flaky at best European economy.

All eyes will be on the US job figures this afternoon, with any positive figure helping push this current rally even higher. The economy is steadily gaining traction, however, this should not be taken for granted as it seems the hill which is Europe could suddenly get a lot steeper.

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Deutsche Bank’s heavy drop in profits highlights the challenges European banks face as they attempt to maintain shareholder value whilst being mandated to increase capital reserves to withstand Europe’s debt troubles.

The spread trading markets seem to have shrugged off this bleak news as expectations already priced in the fall in profits. This market behaviour seems to be typical of late as there are few things to shock investors due to expectations being lowered so much.

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At present the spread trading markets need a boost from somewhere.

Weak US data yesterday and Greece’s troubles hitting the headlines once again seems to have prevented the Federal Reserve’s extension of near zero interest rates through to the end of 2014 from having it’s full effects on equities.

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The emergency funding take-up could reach 1tn Euros, and possibly more if the spread trading markets take a turn for the worse.

Merkel can celebrate slightly as 25 out of the 27 EU States have signed up to her stricter fiscal discipline plan yesterday.

However, the debate over Greece is still well under way as Sarkozy rejects the latest Greek budget proposal, although progress has been made according to Lucas Papademos.

Stronger industrial numbers in Japan has boosted the Asian markets last night, giving rise to a higher open in Europe this morning.

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Asian markets put out a downbeat performance last night after returning from the Chinese new year with investors showing disappointment that the Chinese authorities have not carried out their monetary easing in the manner in which some people had expected.

European leaders are meeting in Brussels today to discuss Greece in further detail. Let’s hope some agreement is made so at least some form of certainty can take hold.

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This synthetic cornering of cash into higher-yielding assets by governmental institutions tends to attract much criticism, as the use of leverage by participants in search of a greater return can potentially create again those asset bubbles that require government support when burst.

But if the spread trading markets back the Fed, and capital not yet employed participates, then the start to this year seen so far might be just the beginning and become viewed as cheap in hindsight.

Gold continued in strength last night, trading higher than $1,710 per oz., and light crude toyed with $100 per barrel once again, with the dollar falling in sympathy.

Eyes will turn to US core durable goods orders and unemployment claims due for release at 13.30 GMT, and new home sales at 15.00.

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A positive outlook remains this morning, as European equities trade marginally higher and debt markets continue to improve ahead of what the spread trading market so far believes as a positive outcome from on-going talks between finance ministers.

Focus today turns to Apple – the firm thrashed the Street’s expected $10.07 earnings per share by 30% – which continues to trade near to nominal all-time highs, and hold more cash than the US treasury.

The results illustrate the unprecedented demand by consumers for iPhones, proving the strength of Apple’s brand and its products as unquestionably strong at this juncture.

The company’s stock can be expected to demand a premium short-term as investors and managers scramble to have their portfolios participate in one of America’s most notorious success stories.

Beyond the zeal of Apple’s results, traders will await pending US home sales out at 15.00 GMT and the FOMC statement at 17.30 for an indication as to whether the recent loading of risk assets can be justified further.

If the 15.00 figure surprises to the downside against a recent stream of positive US macroeconomic results, sellers could hurry to unwind.

This potential outcome presents an asymmetrically structured risk/return profile for sellers if the US economy can be observed to slow more than expected.

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The UK’s blue chip index is -37 at 5745.

Financials and tech shares are weighing heaviest on the blue chip index, with Ashmore Group -3.6% at 350.7, Hargreaves Lansdown -2.46% at 435.3, and Barclays -1.55% at 219.

Global macro and political factors are compounding that downward pressure.

Both the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India cut their 2012 GDP forecasts.

While the EU ban on Iranian oil imports and escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz has made spread trading investors think twice about where to plonk their cash in the face of rising oil prices.

NYMEX Light crude is currently trading above the psychologically important $100 barrel mark, and near-month Brent Crude is currently $111.03.

The Crack Spread, the difference between crude oil and refined petroleum which is important to individuals for automobile and heating use, is pushing back towards 1-month highs of 22.29, currently at 20.75.

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Along with this, Italy is bidding for the EU Bailout fund to double, we have German and French bill auctions today and Croatia is voting whether to join the EU.

So it is safe to say that all eyes will be on Europe today.

Private owners of Greek debt have made their decision for the maximum losses they are prepared to take on their Greek debt, suggesting further demands could cause this voluntary deal to fall on its head.

Research in Motion shakes up its board by letting their chairmen and chief executives step aside, the aim being for new heads to bring some new ideas as it faces dwindling sales as it is faced with ever increasing competition from other smart phone makers.

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Spread trading investors can become increasingly self-conscious though, turning to only potentially significant negative news flows as enough of a reason to unwind cash. This comes in light of the past year where even hedge funds have struggled to beat inflation, let alone the market.

This week has been both steady and positive, lending credibility to the so-called January effect – a month where securities such as stocks experience patterns of stable buying.

But better practice is to illustrate successful bond auctions and positive US economic data and earnings to understand this hopeful start to the year.

Happily, better than expected earnings from mega-caps Bank of America and Morgan Stanley yesterday were overcast by an improvement to overall jobless claims not seen since four years ago.

At least the extent to which potential headwinds could damage markets this year are not too dissimilar from last, hopefully both policy makers and markets will be more experienced and capable this time around.

Article by Spreadex.

CFDs, Forex and Financial Spread Trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. These forms of trading may not be suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Where necessary, seek independent financial advice.

This BillionforGovernor.com is only intended for those persons of 18 years of age or older.